View source for Transportation Deployment Casebook/2018/Life-Cycle Of Australia Civil Avitaion(1925-2017)

= Qualitative analysis =
== 1.	Mode description ==
The contemporary airliner has become one of the most essential public transports. It is defined as a system of transportation which can move passengers and cargos. The first plane was invented in the 1910s and became commercial plane in 1920s in Australia. Its initial function was war machine in war which was also a standstill period for airliner industry. After World War I, a significant conversion occurred that the governments decided to abandon the military flight and develop the new civil airliner.

'''1.1 Main advantages''': Compared with other modes such as train and vehicles, the aircrafts are able to transport in further distance. It could arrive any places on the world and even reach the other side of the world within one day. The contemporary airliner is faster than any other popular transports. It takes 84% of gross travellers to their destinations every year. Due to the speedy development of aviation technology, reliability and energy saving have promptly improved since 2000 and now it has been regarded as the safest transport. The airline also plays an important role to facilitate the globalization. Compared with ferryboat, the speed showed the significant advantage. In this age, there are over 1000 million tourists worldwide. Their choice of taking airliner could not only contribute to GDP, but also create more employment along the journey.

'''1.2 Main markets''': As a country of export, airplanes provided convenience to Australian business which relied on cargo movement. Moreover, because of its speed and reliability, it has been welcomed among the normal people with leisure or corporate purpose. Though Australia located in an isolated corner area, outside world attracted the people as well. 

'''1.3 Organisation'''
Department of Civil Aviation also called DCA, which was existed between 1938 to 1973.<ref>https://trove.nla.gov.au/people/458262?c=people</ref> It was initially carried out by the Department of Defence. This department was merged with Department of Shipping and Transport and renamed as Department of Transport in 1973. It played as a minister role in civil aviation operation.<ref>https://web.archive.org/web/20121022074000/http://www.airwaysmuseum.com/Arthur%20Brownlow%20Corbett%20biog.htm</ref>

Civil Aviation Authority: Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) was established in 1988 July, which controlled air safety regulation and offered traffic services. In 1955, the organisation separated into two parts, the Airservices Australia and the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA).<ref>https://archive.is/20150224142738/http://www.casa.gov.au/scripts/nc.dll?WCMS:STANDARD:1001:pc=PC_100738</ref> The Airservices Australia managed the air traffic control, flight information, air disaster rescue and flight search, while CASA managed the safety rules, pilots’ qualification and aircraft technician. The Airservices Australia transferred into the Australian Maritime Safety Authority in 1997. While, for the CASA, it was responsible to meet safety requirements in the regulation. The related acts included the Air Navigation Act 1920, the Commonwealth Civil Aviation Act 1988 and Airspace Act 2007.<ref>https://www.casa.gov.au/landing-page/about-us?WCMS%3ASTANDARD%3A%3Apc=PC_91621</ref>

== 2.	Scene prior to the mode ==
Transport was changing during that time. There were two popular traffic modes before 1920, the model T and the tram. From animal-drawn vehicles to model T cars, the Model T is also called ‘Tin Lizzie’ and was first invented by Henry Ford in 1908. This kind of cars could be produced on assembly line and made cars affordable for ordinary people.<ref>http://www.kidcyber.com.au/road-transport-a-timeline/</ref> While, steam trams were first introduced in 1901. By 1920, it could speed up to 30km/h, which was initially a few kilometres per hour.

Compared with the airplane, they both had a lower speed and less carried amount. After World War I, economics and trading among countries became more frequency communication. The public curiosity and exploration about other countries was increasing. Some companies saw the fast speed of the airplane and found the potential market, which travelled across the ocean in days. In 1921, first Australia airline company, Qantas Airways, was built, which was the start of the civil aviation times.

== 3.	Invention of the technology == 
'''3.1 Autopilot''': This is a system controlling the aircraft without intervention by pilots. Thanks for the development of the software, autopilot has become a necessary and reliable system in the modern aircraft. The use of an autopilot in an aircraft is to alleviate the pilot’s pressure and to allow the aircraft to fly automatically in a required attitude, heading, altitude and Mach number. Autopilot can also help the pilot complete some minor work, so that the pilot can concentrate on completing other work which is related to flight safety, such as navigation, observation of traffic and so on. <ref>http://www.ibscdc.org/businesscasebooks-pdfs/Aviation%20Industry.pdf</ref>The use of autopilot can reduce the pilot's fatigue after completing a long flight. However, autopilot also has some negative effect: With the improvement of aircraft reliability and the improvement of navigation technology, the requirements of control accuracy force pilots to use autopilot. With the increasing usage of the autopilot, many pilots’ basic flight skills cannot be used for a long period of time. Therefore, when dealing with autopilot malfunctions or special situations, it is easy for pilots to make mistakes.

'''3.2 Hydraulic power''': The theory is used in the modern aircraft. It is used to actuate landing gear, flaps and gears. Using a hydraulic system can control very high pressures or forces with a small amount of fluid. Power assisted braking is an application in hydraulic systems and it is now used in many aircrafts. The hydraulic system is very reliable because the fluid in the hydraulic system is incompressible and the fluid can undertake to transmit high pressure. this is also one of the reasons why the hydraulic system is popular in the modern flights.

Although the principle of the hydraulic system is the same, the hydraulic systems produced by various aircraft manufacturing companies are not totally same. Based on this fact, different hydraulic systems will result in differences at flying. Therefore, aircraft manufacturers usually assemble other system systems and hydraulic systems to understand the influence of fluid dynamics on the aircraft and how to inspect the aircraft during installation and maintenance.

The primary problem to be solved by aviation is how to obtain the lift required by the aircraft, reduce the resistance of the aircraft and increase its flying speed. Aerodynamics plays a very important role in these areas. The content of aerodynamics is about the variation of the velocity, pressure, and the air density under the flight conditions of the aircraft, also it concerns the aerodynamic forces and resistance of the aircraft, and the variation of the aerodynamics. Modern aerodynamics has two branches: velocity aerodynamics and viscous aerodynamics.<ref>https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2797&context=jalc</ref> Aerodynamics are important for the flight of an aircraft. It not only reduces resistance and the depletion of aircraft parts, but also increases fuel efficiency.

== 4.	Early market development ==
'''4.1 Market development''': During the World War I, the governments put the major attention on the military development which brought a crack foundation for aircraft manufacture. However, after the war, the need for military aircraft sharply dropped. To maintain the economic and save this crucial industry from the recession,<ref> https://bitre.gov.au/publications/2017/files/cr_001.pdf</ref> the federal government decided to change their static and concentrated more on civil aircrafts which shared many similarities with battle planes. Initially, the aircrafts were basically used in the mail and fright delivery among cities. At the same time, due to the high price ticket of the airplane, the civil aviation service was luxurious and only affordable to the affluent. Therefore, the development of civil aircrafts experienced a thriving and stable term before the 1950s. 

'''4.2 The airport development''': With the increasing passengers around the world, many airports were established and the local economics was developed as well. They were used to designed to satisfy the mail flight and scarce passenger flight. However, with the airplane manufactures keeping producing the airplane, the airports have to build new terminals to accommodate the increasing amount of airplanes. At the same time, the airports shifted from daily few flight pass through to billions of passenger in years.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1016/j.jairtraman.2008.04.008 |title=A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation |journal=Journal of Air Transport Management |volume=14 |issue=4 |pages=213–220 |year=2008 |last1=Netjasov |first1=Fedja |last2=Janic |first2=Milan }}</ref> Because of the gap time in early arrival and flight transfer, airports built more entertainment facilities, shopping stores and restaurants and provide passengers to kill time. Besides, at the same time, the airports were able to cooperate with local restaurants to build new short-distance hotels near airports and communicate with transport departments to build more convenient transportation network around the airport. During this process, the airport attracted more passengers and build the reputation of comfortable. The airport development improves with civil aviation market development and continually satisfy passenger expectation of air service.

== 5.	Birth phase ==
In the birthing phase, the government could be regarded as key inspiration and guide. The government provided test flight with a reward for the public. In March 1919, the federal government claimed that there would be £10,000 ($20,000) prize offered in the first flight from England to Australia within 30 days. In August of the same year, the government attracted public attention. The Defence Department launched an assignment on air race route survey from Longreach in Queensland to Katherine in Northern Territory. Along the survey routine, the department provided supply to the competitors. <ref>https://www.qantas.com/travel/airlines/history-inspiration/global/en?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D84010730465394883971087791442888793229%7CMCORGID%3D11B20CF953F3626B0A490D44%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1525835076</ref>

Besides, the government provided the subsidy and policy support. To support the business transformation of manufacture, the federal government offered the subsidies at the start. The corresponding policy would contribute to the economic prosperity and benign competition among companies. Because of the injury and death in some action, the Australian Aerial Medical Service was established on 1928 March 27.<ref>https://www.qantas.com/travel/airlines/history-inspiration/global/en?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D84010730465394883971087791442888793229%7CMCORGID%3D11B20CF953F3626B0A490D44%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1525835076</ref> The establishment of the department provided service and security to human life.

== 6.	Growth phase ==
Because of the small cabin capacity in transferred design from battleplane, the government required the companies to construct a larger plane to accommodate more passengers. By imitating the American policy, the average ticket price could be dropped by sharing the trip cost. In 1959, the Australian airways purchased and introduced the Boeing planes into Australia, which greatly shorted the travel price and travel cost.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1016/S1366-5545(03)00045-0 |title=Adjusting the Herfindahl index for close substitutes: An application to pricing in civil aviation |journal=Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review |volume=40 |issue=2 |pages=123–134 |year=2004 |last1=Lijesen |first1=Mark G }}</ref>

Due to the isolated location of Australia, the cross-ocean flight was a major goal for government and companies to achieve. In December 1992, Qantas had successfully cooperated with British Airways and obtained the injection of A$1.35 billion from the government.<ref>https://www.qantas.com/travel/airlines/history-1990/global/en</ref> This was the milestone of the goal accomplishment. Though the Boeing airplane shortened the travel time, the technology implement cost was still high and the technology cannot be widely applied to all long-distance destinations until the 21st century. During the process, the government offered the technical support and financial support.

== 7.	 Mature phase ==
In the mature stage, it is estimated to be around 100 billion departments and arrivals in Australia airports in 60 years. 

'''7.1 Government policy''': The limitation would be focused on government policy. The government provided subsidies at the first. However, when the subsidies ended, in order to occupy and maintain the market share, companies have to expand the service content, such as the airport pickup and renting cars. The service content would increase while the service quality might drop.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1016/S0969-6997(99)00021-6 |title=An assessment of risk and safety in civil aviation |journal=Journal of Air Transport Management |volume=6 |pages=43–50 |year=2000 |last1=Janic |first1=Milan }}</ref> If the companies face the trouble of capital turnover and cannot overcome the economic difficulties, the corresponding completion might reduce and monopoly might occur in aviation. Because of the relatively stable structure of airways operation, the introduction of new improved operating system would be a tough process and need government policy support as well.

'''7.2 Opportunities to "re-invent"''': With technology improvement and traffic network perfection, the ultimate departure-arrival amount might be increased. Due to the greenhouse gas emission, the aircraft fuel will become a concern. The environment impact force the government to come up with an environmental-friendly new technology in the airplanes, such as electric power engine in the planes. A lower cost and more time-saving air journey is expected by the public as well, because the price is not stable and usually needed to be ordered in advance, which is not cost-efficient to an emergency. Considering the network, the arrangement would be tighter under the increasing number of department and arrivals. The suitable timeline schedule would effectively increase the efficiency.

= Quantitative =

== 1. Methodology ==
'''1.1 Data obtaining''': Within the measurement of the traffic mode stage, the total amount of departure and arrival dataset is used and the dataset was obtained from 3 databanks. Instead of the number of produced airplane per year, the number of department and arrival could stand the accumulated data. The produced airplanes might not be applied into usage directly, thus there might be some errors inside. The initial records of departure-arrival data were from 1925.<ref>https://www.casa.gov.au/standard-page/data-files </ref> The dataset from Bureau of Statistic recorded the amount of department and arrival in a unit of month and in more details from 1976, therefore the data after 1976 is used.<ref>http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3401.0Feb%202018?OpenDocument</ref> The Worldbank data is used to check and adapt the data to ensure that the datasets are correct and have reasonable small errors.<ref>https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.DPRT?locations=AU</ref>

'''1.2 Theory'''

The basic equation is to estimate the stage of the mode in a certain year.
 S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-t0)]

Where:
·     S(t) is the status measure (amount of department-arrival per year)

·     t is a time in year

·     t<sub>0</sub> is the inflection time (year in which ½ k is achieved)

·     K is the saturation status level

·     b is a coefficient 

K and b are to be estimated through the regression analysis 

In addition, the equation is derived into a linear form to estimate the value K, b and t<sub>0</sub>. The equations are shown are follow. The more RSQ is close to 1, the more the predicted curve fit the actual situation.

y = bX + c

<math>y=LN\left ( \frac{department-arrival amount }{K-(department-arrival amount)} \right )</math>

== 2. Result diagrams and tables ==
[[File:Predicted stage value with years.png|thumb|curve|left|660x660px]] [[File:Regression Table.png|thumb|curve|right|550x550px]]
[[File:S curve .png|thumb|curve|right|550x550px]]








































'''Adaption''': According to the S-curve diagram, it could be seen that in 2017-2018, the slope of departure-arrival amounts is larger than that of the predicted one. In another word, the aircraft industries are currently increasing exceeding prediction. Therefore, the estimated ultimate K (saturated departure-arrival amount) value should be improved to keep that the slope of the predicted amount is not less than the actual situation. Then, though the RSQ in this situation is not the biggest (best-fit curve), the final curve showed below is almost satisfying the expectation. There might be a different saturation number when the mode in the mature phase because the events would have the influence on the process. It has already shown a delay in the growth phase because of the economic effect. Therefore, the new results were shown below, where K=100,000 （in thousand）.


[[File:New data.png|thumb|curve|left|660x660px]][[File:New regression result.png|thumb|curve|right|550x550px]]
[[File:New s-surve.png|thumb|curve|right|550x550px]]

== 3. Result analysis ==
'''3.1 Influenced factors''': the government policy is one of the big factors, which offered subsidies in early time and provided policy support in a long term. Besides, due to the fuel consumption in flight, the aircraft industries are also affected by the worldwide fuel market and economic situation.

'''3.2 Events during the process''': Because of the Great Depression between 1929 to 1933, the aircraft industry almost faced the nip the aircraft manufacture in the bud. Fortunately, the government policy support and subsidies in the early stage, the Australian aircraft survived, which was not like other countries airplane companies bankruptcy. <ref>https://www.boeing.com.au/boeing-in-australia/history.page</ref>The economic crisis happened around the world when the subprime crisis occurred in America during 2007-2008, which affected Australia as well. The economic downturn spread to aircraft industries and the dropped amount of department and arrival cannot be avoided.


== 4. Problems in the manufacture ==
'''4.1 Economic reflection delay''': The airways order a new plane in the manufacture and the newly designed airplane product might be produced in few years. At that time, whether the plane would satisfy the demand in that time is a problem. Because the new airplane is designed based on previously demand and condition, which might have differences in current situation.<ref>https://books.google.com.au/books?hl=en&lr=&id=jLW8-3r6ac4C&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=civil+aviation+&ots=nx8hgsc4zB&sig=giMmhsz1HNbXTKc1eCWM6I09Jqs&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=civil%20aviation&f=false</ref>During the time, there might be a new type of technology created and applied and the previously new design plane might reduce the value to some extent.

'''4.2 The machine issue''': Though there are rigorous arrangement and safety protection, air disasters still happened. Some of them are caused by operation error, while others could be concluded into the machine malfunction.<ref>{{cite journal |doi=10.1016/j.aap.2007.07.011 |pmid=18329391 |title=Routes to failure: Analysis of 41 civil aviation accidents from the Republic of China using the human factors analysis and classification system |journal=Accident Analysis & Prevention |volume=40 |issue=2 |pages=426–434 |year=2008 |last1=Li |first1=Wen-Chin |last2=Harris |first2=Don |last3=Yu |first3=Chung-San }}</ref> When fault happened, it is hard for pilots to react and the air crashes happened in few seconds, especially in engine explosion.

== 5. References ==

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